When the UK voted to leave the EU, predictions about its impact ranged from economic disaster to political isolation.
Some of these fears have materialised in various ways, but others haven’t played out — at least not yet. While Brexit has undeniably brought challenges — and many would argue it’s the worst decision Brits have made in a very long time — certain worst-case scenarios have either been avoided or haven’t happened to the extent people expected. Here are some of the major concerns that, so far, haven’t come true.
1. The economy didn’t collapse overnight.
One of the biggest fears in the lead-up to Brexit was that the UK economy would take an immediate and catastrophic hit. Some predicted a severe recession, a stock market crash, and businesses failing en masse. To be fair, a report by Cambridge Econometrics commissioned by City Hall in 2023 found that London’s economy had shrunk by £30 billion, while the UK as a whole was down about £140 billion since leaving the EU. While Brexit has created economic challenges, including slowed growth and trade disruptions, the economy didn’t collapse overnight as some had feared.
The UK has faced inflation, supply chain issues, and trade friction with the EU, but these factors have been influenced by a mix of global events, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. While Brexit’s economic impact is still unfolding, the doomsday predictions of an instant financial meltdown have not come to pass.
2. Businesses didn’t flee the UK en masse.
There were widespread concerns that major companies would leave the UK in droves to maintain access to the EU market. While some financial firms and businesses have shifted parts of their operations to Europe, and exports to the EU from UK businesses have gone way down (to the tune of about 16,400 per the London School of Economics and Political Science), the predicted mass exodus hasn’t really happened.
Many international businesses have found ways to adapt to the new trade landscape, and London remains a key financial hub. Some companies have had to restructure their supply chains or set up EU offices, but the UK hasn’t become the deserted business wasteland that some feared.
3. The UK didn’t lose all global political influence.
Some argued that Brexit would leave the UK politically isolated, with diminished influence on the world stage. Without its EU membership, the concern was that Britain would struggle to have a meaningful voice in international affairs.
While the UK no longer has a seat at the EU table, it remains an active global player. It has played a key role in supporting Ukraine, has maintained strong diplomatic ties with the US (which may actually be waning in the months and years to come), and continues to be a major contributor to NATO and global trade negotiations. The UK’s political relevance may have changed, but it hasn’t disappeared. Plus, we may actually be dedicating ourselves to developing closer ties with the EU once again, which can only be a good thing for European security — and trade.
4. Security and intelligence sharing didn’t break down.
A major concern was that Brexit would damage the UK’s ability to cooperate with EU nations on security, counterterrorism, and intelligence-sharing. Given the increasing importance of global security, losing access to key intelligence networks would have been a significant blow.
However, security cooperation has largely remained intact. The UK and EU have continued to work together on crime prevention, counterterrorism, and defence. While there have been adjustments to data-sharing agreements, the feared breakdown in security collaboration has not occurred.
5. The NHS didn’t collapse due to staff shortages.
Okay, hear me out on this one. Before Brexit, there were fears that losing free movement would drive EU healthcare workers out of the UK, leaving the NHS with major staffing shortages. While recruitment has been affected in some areas, the NHS has not collapsed… yet. An analysis by Nuffield Health discovered that more than 4,000 European healthcare providers had chosen not to work in the NHS after Brexit, causing a significant slowdown to the ability to fill vacant positions in the system.
The government has introduced new visa schemes to attract international healthcare workers, and while the NHS remains under strain, this is due to multiple factors, including funding issues and post-pandemic pressures. Brexit has had an impact, but it hasn’t led to the widespread medical staffing crisis that many predicted.
6. EU students didn’t completely abandon UK universities.
There were concerns that Brexit would make the UK a less attractive destination for international students, particularly those from the EU, due to increased tuition fees and visa requirements. While applications from EU students have declined by about 50%, per a 2023 report by The Guardian, UK universities are still attracting large numbers of international students overall.
To counteract the drop in EU student numbers, universities have focused on increasing recruitment from non-EU countries. Programmes like the Turing Scheme have also been introduced to replace Erasmus, ensuring that international education opportunities continue.
7. Food shortages weren’t as extreme as feared.
Many worried that Brexit would cause severe disruptions to food imports, leading to empty supermarket shelves. While there have been supply chain issues and price increases, the food shortages that some predicted have not been widespread.
Brexit-related trade barriers have caused delays in certain goods, and some food businesses have had to adjust their sourcing strategies. However, supermarket shelves remain stocked, and while some products have seen price increases, the country has not faced a full-blown food crisis.
8. Consumer prices didn’t spiral out of control.
Concerns about post-Brexit trade complications led to fears that everything from groceries to electronics would see drastic price hikes. While inflation has been an issue, for sure, this has been driven by multiple global factors, not just Brexit.
Price increases have occurred, particularly for imported goods, but Brexit alone has not caused an extreme cost-of-living crisis. Rising energy prices, supply chain issues, and the impact of the pandemic have all contributed to inflation across the world, making it difficult to isolate Brexit as the primary cause.
9. UK citizens can still travel to Europe relatively easily.
Many feared that Brexit would make travel to EU countries much harder, with lengthy border checks and visa restrictions. While there are some new rules, such as passport validity requirements and the upcoming ETIAS visa waiver, UK citizens can still travel freely across Europe for short trips.
Travel has become slightly less convenient, especially for those wanting to stay for longer periods, but holidays and business trips remain largely unchanged. UK travellers are still welcomed across the EU, and the process is far from the nightmare scenario some predicted.
10. The City of London remains a financial powerhouse.
One of the major concerns was that Brexit would significantly damage London’s status as a global financial centre. Some banks and investment firms moved staff and assets to EU countries, but the core of London’s financial sector remains strong.
The UK has adapted to post-Brexit regulations, and London is still a dominant force in global finance. While the financial industry has had to navigate new challenges, it hasn’t lost its position as one of the world’s leading financial hubs.
11. Northern Ireland didn’t descend into chaos.
The potential impact of Brexit on Northern Ireland was a major source of concern, with fears that border issues could reignite tensions. While Brexit has led to complications regarding trade and political stability, widespread unrest has not materialised.
The Northern Ireland Protocol has been a source of political friction, but efforts to manage post-Brexit arrangements have continued. While challenges remain, the feared collapse of the Good Friday Agreement has so far been avoided.
12. The UK is still figuring things out.
While Brexit has brought about many challenges, it’s important to recognise that it is an ongoing process. Some of the worst-case scenarios have not played out, but that doesn’t mean they won’t in the future. Many aspects of Brexit’s long-term impact are still unfolding.
Trade relationships, economic policies, and political agreements will continue to evolve in the coming years. While some fears have not been realised yet, Brexit remains a work in progress, and its full effects are still being shaped by government decisions and global events.
