Public opinion in Britain has changed dramatically since Brexit, with growing support for rejoining the EU driven by economic reality and changing geopolitical circumstances.
Recent polls show that 56-60% of Britons would now vote to join the EU in a hypothetical referendum, a significant reversal from the 2016 vote. The reasons for this potential return are compelling and increasingly practical rather than ideological. You might be vehemently against this, or these arguments may be convincing to you. Either way, this may become a topic of conversation sooner than anyone would have expected.
1. The economic damage from Brexit is now undeniable.
Brexit has reduced London’s economy by £140 billion and cost the UK approximately 2 million jobs by 2024, with independent analysis showing the average citizen is nearly £2,000 worse off as a result of Brexit. These aren’t theoretical projections anymore—they’re measurable impacts that people are experiencing in their daily lives.
The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that Brexit will reduce long-run productivity by 4% relative to remaining in the EU, with the UK’s trade intensity falling by 11% between 2019 and 2021. The government’s own forecasters acknowledge these permanent economic costs, making the case for rejoining increasingly about economic recovery rather than political ideology.
2. The UK missed out on the global trade recovery.
While other advanced economies saw their exports rebound to pre-pandemic levels by 2021, UK exports remained around 10-12% below pre-pandemic levels, suggesting Brexit-related disruption rather than just COVID impacts. This trade underperformance has been persistent and damaging to economic growth.
Brexit reduced UK goods exports by an estimated £27 billion (6.4%) in 2022 alone, with smaller firms being disproportionately affected. The promised trade deals with other countries have failed to compensate for lost European trade, leaving Britain economically isolated at a crucial time.
3. Brexit regret is now majority opinion.
Polls consistently show that most people in the UK now think Brexit had a mainly negative impact, especially on the cost of living and the economy. This isn’t just buyer’s remorse; it’s a rational response to observable negative consequences that weren’t properly explained during the 2016 campaign.
Two-thirds of Labour voters think there should be another EU referendum within the next five years, with 78% of 2024 Labour voters saying they would vote to rejoin the EU. The governing party’s base strongly supports closer ties with Europe, creating political pressure for policy changes.
4. Global security challenges require European cooperation.
The altered strategic context from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created shared challenges including geopolitical competition, irregular migration, climate change and energy security that require closer UK-EU cooperation. Brexit has left Britain more isolated precisely when international cooperation is most critical. Sure, there’s the new Security and Defence Partnership, but it’s not quite the same thing.
With the US potentially withdrawing from European security commitments under Trump, Britain needs to renew its role in Europe rather than relying on the “special relationship” with America. Rejoining the EU would give Britain influence over European security policy rather than being dependent on American decisions.
5. Climate action requires integrated European policy.
Climate cooperation and energy transition are essential to UK-EU security objectives, with proposals to link UK and EU emission trading schemes already under discussion. Climate change doesn’t respect borders, and effective action requires the kind of coordinated policy that EU membership enables.
Energy security has become a critical issue following the war in Ukraine, and Britain’s energy transition would be more effective as part of integrated European planning rather than as a standalone national effort. Rejoining would give Britain influence over European green transition policies.
6. The current “reset” approach is proving inadequate.
Despite Starmer’s talk of resetting relations, Labour’s EU policy remains pretty vague and underwhelming, rather than offering a vision for substantially different relationship. Incremental improvements won’t address the fundamental economic damage Brexit has caused.
EU officials are expressing impatience about the lack of detail on what Britain wants, while domestic constraints mean the key cabinet committee dealing with Europe met only twice between the 2024 election and February 2025. Half-measures aren’t working when what’s needed is fundamental change.
7. Young people strongly support rejoining.
The EU has offered youth mobility schemes for 18-30 year olds, but the UK government has rejected these proposals. Young people who will live with Brexit’s consequences longest are most supportive of reversing it, creating inevitable pressure for change as demographics shift.
The generational divide on Brexit is stark, with younger voters having been most likely to vote Remain in 2016 and most likely to support rejoining now. As older Brexit supporters age out of the electorate, political support for rejoining will only grow stronger.
8. Northern Ireland shows the benefits of EU alignment.
Northern Ireland has mostly benefited from Brexit due to the Northern Ireland Protocol keeping it effectively within the EU’s customs union and single market, highlighting the economic advantages of EU alignment. This provides a real-world example of how EU membership benefits the UK economy.
The contrast between Northern Ireland’s relative economic success and the struggles in England and Scotland demonstrates the costs of leaving European economic structures. It’s a natural experiment that makes the case for rejoining based on observable economic outcomes.
9. Investment has been persistently weak since Brexit.
Investment stagnated for five years after Brexit before returning to growth, with the uncertainty and reduced market access making Britain less attractive to international investors. Rejoining would restore confidence and market access that international businesses need.
By 2035, the UK is anticipated to have 32% lower investment than it would have had if it remained in the Single Market. This long-term investment decline will compound over time, making early action to reverse Brexit increasingly important for Britain’s economic future.
10. The EU is willing to welcome Britain back.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has expressed support for the UK eventually rejoining the EU, and France and Germany proposed restructuring EU membership to allow Britain to rejoin as an associate member. The door remains open, though it may not stay open indefinitely.
However, any rejoin application would need unanimous support from member states and would likely require Britain’s participation in the Eurozone and Schengen Area, with fewer concessions than the UK previously received. The terms would be tougher, making early action more advantageous than delay.
11. Brexit has damaged Britain’s international reputation.
The chaos of Brexit negotiations, multiple prime ministerial changes, and economic self-harm has made Britain look unreliable and politically unstable to international partners. Rejoining would signal that Britain has learned from its mistakes and is ready to be a constructive European partner again.
The reputational damage affects everything from trade negotiations to diplomatic influence. Rejoining the EU would restore Britain’s credibility as a serious international actor, rather than an unpredictable former colonial power struggling with modern realities.
12. The demographic trends favour rejoining.
Support for holding a rejoin referendum increases with longer timeframes—45% support it within five years, 49% within ten years, and 52% within 25 years. This reflects the reality that Brexit support was concentrated among older voters, who are gradually being replaced by younger, more pro-European cohorts.
Political parties that position themselves for this demographic shift rather than clinging to Brexit nostalgia will be better positioned for long-term electoral success. The question isn’t whether Britain will move closer to Europe, but how quickly.
13. Regional inequalities have worsened since Brexit.
Brexit’s economic costs have been unevenly distributed, with London, the West Midlands, and coastal areas being hit hardest, whilst the benefits have been concentrated in a few areas. Rejoining could help address these regional imbalances through access to EU regional development funding and integrated economic planning.
The “levelling up” promises made by Brexit supporters have largely failed to materialise, whilst EU structural funds had previously helped develop struggling regions. Rejoining would restore access to European funding and economic opportunities that could genuinely help reduce regional inequalities.
14. The window for rejoining may be closing.
Political scientist Anthony Salamone suggests that member state support for British reaccession would require “significant, stable and long-lasting majority public opinion in favour of rejoining”—potentially 60% sustained support. Current polling suggests this threshold may soon be reached.
However, EU enlargement priorities are currently focused on Ukraine, Moldova, and Western Balkan countries. If Britain delays too long, it may find itself at the back of a very long queue for membership, with the EU having moved on from concerns about British re-entry. The opportunity exists now, but may not hang around indefinitely.
